Drought, Climate Change, What Is Next For The California Farmer?

Not just orange growers, but all the different California farmers are facing many challenges in the coming months and years.

Scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Lab predict climate change will bring hotter weather and cause a forty percent decrease in California avocado production over the next three decades.

Avocados are already in short supply because of an ongoing drought in California, and scientists say climate change could greatly reduce avocado production in the future.

The guacamole is a major part of any Mexican style meal but scientists say avocados could be hard to come by in the next 10-20 years because of climate change affecting California, which could knock this specialty right off the menu.

Chipotle Restaurants is paying very close attention. The company uses 35 million pounds of avocados every year, it's warning investors that could mean higher prices -- even the end of guacamole sales at their stores.

For now the owners of San Francisco's Chilango restaurants say they'll keep buying avocados for their special guacamole -- as long as the price allows.

Hot, dry weather from San Luis Obispo to San Diego during the blooming period last summer is expected to produce California's lowest avocado yield since 1990. At an anticipated 210 million pounds, this year's crop will fall short of the 2008 harvest by nearly a third.

Traditionally, California has been the main supplier of avocados to the U.S. during the spring and summer months, though imports are also brought in from Mexico and Chile.

More than a billion pounds of avocados are sold in the U.S each year, averaging 20 million to 22 million pounds per week. This summer, with domestic and imported fruits, supply should reach 15 million to 20 million pounds per week.

“With what Mexico can bring in combined with California, we should have enough to fulfill demand or at least come close,” says Scott Bauwens, director of field services and marketing for Temecula, California-based West Pak Avocado, a packer, marketer, and distributor.

Still, consumers will see an increase in prices for all avocados and related products.

With a limited supply to work with, California avocado growers may try to focus on supplying their limited crop to markets on the West Coast.

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